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File:Cost-of-storms-by-decade.jpg

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Cost-of-storms-by-decade.jpg (474 × 374 pixels, file size: 28 KB, MIME type: image/jpeg)

Origial figure, before suggestions resulting in the graph above. Note that neither figure yet includes historical data from 2000-2005. Revision requests included asking for confidence intervals, a greater level of significance, and a nonnegative domain.

Summary

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The cost of extreme weather is rising rapidly and could reach four trillion dollars by 2020. source data: IPCC. Some of the increase is due to greater exposure such as building on the coast.

Note that the underlying cause (excess heat trapped in atmosphere by greenhouse gases) more closely fits a sigmoid curve. The logistic function or its functional neighbors (e.g., the Gompertz function) might produce a better extrapolation.

Script to create

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Later revision: The cost of extreme weather is rising rapidly and could reach 350 billion U.S. 2001 dollars per year by 2025. source data: IPCC, 2001. Some of the cost increase is due to added exposure such as building on the coast.

Application and source code

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R : Copyright 2005, The R Foundation for Statistical Computing Version 2.2.0 2005-10-06....

decade <- c(1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990)
billions <- c(3.5, 5, 7.5, 13, 40)
# from http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/2001syr/large/08.17.jpg
new <- data.frame(decade = seq(1950, 2050, 1)) # for graph
lb <- log(billions) # enter log domain for nonnegative data
pm <- lm(lb ~ poly(decade, 2))
summary(pm)

"... on 2 degrees of freedom, adjusted R-squared: 0.9839, p-value: 0.00804"

clim <- predict(pm, new, interval = "confidence") # calculate confidence intervals
eclim <- exp(clim) # exit log domain
matplot(new$decade, eclim, lty = c(1, 3, 3), col = c("black", "brown", "brown"), type = "l", ylab = "billions", ylim=c(0,4000), xlab = "decade", xlim=c(1950,2020), main="average yearly inflation-adjusted U.S. dollar
cost of extreme weather events worldwide")

Thanks

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Thanks to Marc Schwartz for the R commands to create graphs with confidence intervals.

File history

Click on a date/time to view the file as it appeared at that time.

Date/TimeThumbnailDimensionsUserComment
current02:17, 21 December 2005Thumbnail for version as of 02:17, 21 December 2005474 × 374 (28 KB)Nrcprm2026 (talk | contribs)revision to Image:Cost-of-storms-by-decade.gif by James Salsman with 95% confidence intervals, in the nonnegative log domain, with 2 instead of 1 degrees of freedom, as requested at Talk:Global_warming#Image:Cost-of-storms-by-decade.gif

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