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Opinion polling for the 2016 Philippine presidential election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Opinion polling, locally known as surveys, in the 2016 Philippine presidential and vice presidential elections is conducted by Social Weather Stations (SWS), Pulse Asia, and other pollsters. The last electoral votes were cast on Monday, May 9, 2016.

As the positions of president and vice president are elected separately, pollsters usually have separate surveys for each position.

The figure representing the polling numbers for the candidate that topped each poll is emboldened unless two or more candidates tied, when they are all emboldened. Those figures which are within the margin of error are italicized.

Calendar

[edit]
  • Filing of candidacies: October 12 to 16, 2015
  • Campaign period for candidates for president, vice president, senators and party-list representatives: February 9 to May 7, 2016
  • Campaign period for local positions and district representatives: March 26 to May 7, 2016
  • Casting of ballots for local absentee voters: April 27 to 29, 2016
  • Election day: May 9, 2016

Polling for president

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Graphical summary

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From the start of the campaign period to Election Day

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size MoE Binay
UNA
Poe
Ind
Duterte
PDP-Laban
Roxas
LP
Santiago
PRP
Refused Don't know Undecided / None
Election results May 9, 2016 44,979,151 N/A 12.73 21.31 39.02 23.45 3.42 N/A
SWS[1] Exit poll 45,123 N/A 13.5 19.2 39.3 24.0 3.1 N/A
D' Strafford[2] May 1–5, 2016 4,000 ±1.2% 16.6 22.5 25.4 30.5 3 0.3 1.7
SWS[3] May 1–3, 2016 4,500 ±1.0% 13 22 33 20 2 6 4
Argus[4] Apr 28–30, 2016 6,000 ±1.9% 19 27 31 19 4
Standard[5] Apr 27-May 1, 2016 3,000 ±1.8% 15 25 32 22 2 4
Antonio Trillanes' exposé on Rodrigo Duterte's alleged multimillion peso bank accounts and properties (April 27).
Pulse Asia[6] Apr 26–29, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 17 21 33 22 2 5
D' Strafford[7] Apr 25–29, 2016 4,500 ±1.2% 17 24 25 28 3 1
The Center[8] Apr 23–29, 2016 1,800 ±2.5% 23 25 29 21 2
Third presidential debate in Dagupan (April 24).
Pulse Asia[9] Apr 19–24, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 18 22 33 20 2 5
SWS[10] Apr 18–20, 2016 1,800 ±2% 14 24 33 19 2 5 3
Rodrigo Duterte makes a joke about a murdered and raped Australian kidnap victim in a campaign rally (April 17).
Pulse Asia[11] Apr 16–20, 2016 1,800 ±2.3% 16 23 35 17 2 0.3 5
D' Strafford[12] Apr 13–18, 2016 2,800 ±1.9% 19 26 20 26 4 4
Pulse Asia[13] Apr 12–17, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 19 22 34 18 2 1 3 4
The Center[14] Apr 11–16, 2016 1,800 ±2.5% 23.25 26.25 26.75 20.75 2 1
The Supreme Court declares their vote on Grace Poe's natural-born status and 10-year residency is final and executory, and she is eligible to the presidency (April 9).
Pulse Asia[15] Apr 5–10, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 20 25 32 18 1 1 2 1
The Center[16] Apr 1–7, 2016 1,800 ±2.5% 22 25 29 19 2 2.3
Pulse Asia[17] Mar 29–Apr 3, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 20 25 30 19 2 4
MBCDZRH[18] Apr 2, 2016 7,490 ±1.13% 15.3 28.2 36 15.2 3.5 1.8
SWS[19] Mar 30–Apr 2, 2016 1,500 ±3% 20 23 27 18 3
Standard [20] Mar 26–Apr 1, 2016 3,000 ±1.8% 18 27 30 21 2 2
Second presidential debate in Cebu City (March 20).
Pulse Asia[21] Mar 15–20, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 23 28 24 19 2 4
Pulse Asia[22] Mar 8–13, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 22 26 25 20 3 5
The Supreme Court affirms Grace Poe's natural-born status and declares she is qualified to run (March 8).
SWS[23] Mar 4–7, 2016 1,800 ±2% 24 27 21 22 4 1
Pulse Asia[24] Mar 1–6, 2016 2,600 ±1.9% 21 28 24 20 3 6
Standard[25] Feb 24–Mar 1, 2016 3,000 ±1.8% 23 26 24 22 2 4
Pulse Asia[26] Feb 23–27, 2016 2,600 ±1.9% 22 25 23 20 3
Pulse Asia[27] Feb 16–27, 2016 5,200 ±1.4% 24 26 22 19 3 2 2 2
First presidential debate in Cagayan de Oro (February 21).
Pulse Asia[28] Feb 15–20, 2016 1,800 ±2% 25 26 21 21 3 4
MBCDZRH[29][30] Feb 13, 2016 7,572 ±1.13% 23.2 27 26.4 19 3.9 2.3

From the end of candidacy filing to the start of the campaign period

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size MoE Binay
UNA
Poe
Ind
Duterte
PDP-Laban
Roxas
LP
Santiago
PRP
David
AK
Sabio
Ind
Señeres
PMM
Syjuco
Ind
Others Refused Don't know None
2016
SWS[31] Feb 5-7, 2016 1,200 ±3% 29 24 24 18 4 2
Standard[32] Jan 27-Feb 4, 2016 3,000 ±1.8% 22 29 20 22 2 4
Pulse Asia[33] Jan 24–28, 2016 1,200 ±3% 23 30 20 20 4 0.1 0.4 1 1
SWS[34] Jan 8–10, 2016 1,800 ±2% 31 24 20 21 3 0 0.1 0 2
RMN[35] Jan 5-14, 2016 3,578 ±2.5% 21.49 28.59 27.86 15.12 5.14 1.79
2015
SWS[36] Dec 12–14, 2015 1,200 ±3% 26 26 20 22 4 0.1 0.04 0 0 0.1 1
Standard[37] Dec 4–12, 2015 1,800 ±2% 23 28 19 22 3 0.1 4
Pulse Asia[38] Dec 4–11, 2015 1,500 ±2.6% 33 21 23 21 4 0.1 0 0 0.3 1 1
MBCDZRH[39] Nov 27, 2015 7,436 ±1.14% 18.63 25.14 30.25 14.92 6.22 0.21 0.08 0.31 0.10 2.23 1.92
RMN[40] Oct 25-Nov 5, 2015 3,604 ±2.5% 22.95 37.15 19.64 11.74 8.52

Until candidacy filing ended on 16 October 2015

[edit]

Single-choice surveys

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size MoE
Binay
UNA
Others Refused Don't know None
2015
Pulse Asia[41] Sep 8–15, 2015 2,400 ±2% 19 26 16 20 3 5 1 2 6
0.6%
Bello (Ind): 0.1%
Others: 0.5%
3
SWS[42] Sep 2–5, 2015 1,200 ±3% 24 26 11 20 12 3 4 0.8 4 8 0.8 8
3%
Villar (NP): 1%
Others/Refused/Don't know/None:2%
Pulse Asia[43] Aug 27–Sep 3, 2015 1,200 ±3% 21 27 15 18 4 5 1 5 1
RMN[44] Aug 11–18, 2015 4,718 ±2.5% 26.16 24.84 12.42 18.14 4.33 6 1.9 0.06 1.83
Pulse Asia[45] May 30–Jun 5, 2015 1,200 ±3% 22 30 15 10 6 10 2 2 Others: 1% 1 0.4 1
Laylo [46] May 8–18, 2015 1,500 ±2.6% 28 24 10 8 8 10 4 3 3 1
IBON[47][48] May 13–23, 2015 1,496 ±3% 13.8 13.7 7.6 3.8
15.0%
B. Aquino (LP) 4.2%
Others: 10.8%
46.1
Pulse Asia[49] Mar 1–7, 2015 1,200 ±3% 29 14 12 4 9 12 4 3 6 1 1
3%
Trillanes (Ind): 2%
Others: 1%
1 0.1 2
2014
Pulse Asia[50] Nov 14–20, 2014 1,200 ±3% 26 18 6 12 10 7 3 4 1 2 3 1 1
3.4%
Belmonte (LP): 0.4%
Others: 3%
0.3 0.5 0.2
Pulse Asia[51] Sep 8–15, 2014 1,200 ±3% 31 10 13 11 10 5 1 4 2 0.4 1 1
4%
Castro (Ind): 3%
Robredo (LP): 1%
Pulse Asia[52] Jun 24–Jul 6, 2014 1,200 ±3% 41 12 7 7 9 7 5 5 1 1 2 Others: 2% 1 0.5 1
Pulse Asia[53] Mar 19–26, 2014 1,200 ±3% 40 15 6 10 9 4 5 2 3
5%
K. Aquino (Ind): 4%
Others: 1%
0.03 0.2 0.4

Three-choice surveys

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These surveys asked participants to rank up to three candidates.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size MoE Others Don't know/refused None
SWS[54] Sep 2–5, 2015 1,200 ±3% 35 47 39 16 2 3 6 1 5 1 1 5 2
SWS[55] Jun 5–8, 2015 1,200 ±3% 34 42 21 20 4 7 4 2 3 7 1 1 1 1 9 5
SWS[56] Mar 20–23, 2015 1,200 ±3% 36 31 15 15 11 11 8 4 7 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 3 12
SWS[57] Nov 27–Dec 1, 2014 1,800 ±2% 37 21 19 5 10 9 9 3 3 2 5 5 2 1 1 1 1 5 15 8

Polling for vice president

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Graphical summary

[edit]

From the start of the campaign period to Election Day

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size MoE Escudero
Ind
Marcos
Ind
Cayetano
Ind
Robredo
LP
Honasan
UNA
Trillanes
Ind
Refused Don't know Undecided / None
Election results May 9, 2016 44,066,884 N/A 12.01 34.47 14.38 35.11 1.92 2.11 N/A
SWS[1] Exit poll 45,123 N/A 11.0 34.6 14.9 32.8 2.5 2.1 N/A
D' Strafford [2] May 1–5, 2016 4,000 ±1.2% 18 25 17 35 1 3 1
SWS[3] May 1–3, 2016 4,500 ±1.0% 15 29 13 28 3 3 9
Standard [5] Apr 27-May 1, 2016 3,000 ±1.8% 20 30 12 29 3 3 3
Argus [4] Apr 28–30, 2016 6,000 ±1.9% 22 33 13 24 4 4
D' Strafford [7] Apr 25–29, 2016 4,500 ±1.2% 18 28 16 34 2 1 1
Pulse Asia[6] Apr 26–29, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 18 28 15 30 3 2 4
The Center [8] Apr 23–29, 2016 1,800 ±2.5% 18 31 15 25 5 3 3
Pulse Asia[9] Apr 19–24, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 18 31 15 26 2 3 5
SWS[10] Apr 18–20, 2016 1,800 ±2% 18 25 16 26 2 5 3 5
Second vice presidential debate in Quezon City (April 17).
Pulse Asia[11] Apr 16–20, 2016 1,800 ±2.3% 18 29 16 24 4 3 0.7 7
D' Strafford [12] Apr 13–18, 2016 2,800 ±1.9% 23 25 17 32 1 2
Pulse Asia[13] Apr 12–17, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 20 29 16 23 4 3 1 3 1
The Center [14] Apr 11–16, 2016 1,800 ±2.5% 23 29 15 25 4 3 1
First vice presidential debate in Manila (April 10).
Pulse Asia[15] Apr 5–10, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 23 27 17 21 4 3 1 2 1
The Center [16] Apr 1–7, 2016 1,800 ±2.5% 22.5 28.5 16 23.5 4.25 3.75 1.75
Pulse Asia[17] Mar 29–Apr 3, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 21 28 15 22 4 5 5
MBCDZRH[18] Apr 2, 2016 7,490 ±1.13% 22.6 29.8 18.4 17.8 4.3 5.5 1.6
SWS[19] Mar 30–Apr 2, 2016 1,500 ±3% 21 26 13 19 5 5
Standard [20] Mar 26–Apr 1, 2016 3,000 ±1.8% 28 25 15 21 3 5 4
Pulse Asia[21] Mar 15-20, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 25 25 14 21 5 4 5
Pulse Asia[22] Mar 8-13, 2016 4,000 ±1.5% 24 25 13 20 5 6 6
SWS[23] Mar 4-7, 2016 1,800 ±2% 28 26 11 24 5 6 2
Pulse Asia[24] Mar 1-6, 2016 2,600 ±1.9% 25 22 14 21 5 6 6
Standard [25] Feb 24-Mar 1, 2016 3,000 ±1.8% 30 24 11 20 4 7 5
Pulse Asia[26] Feb 23-27, 2016 2,600 ±1.9% 25 26 12 21 6 4
Pulse Asia[27] Feb 16-27, 2016 5,200 ±1.4% 26 26 13 18 6 5 2 2 2
MBCDZRH[29][30] Feb 13, 2016 7,572 ±1.13% 26.8 25.1 14.8 18.8 5.5 6.2 2.7
Pulse Asia[28] Feb 15-20, 2016 1,800 ±2% 29 26 12 19 4 6 3

From the end of candidacy filing to the start of the campaign period

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size MoE Escudero
Ind
Marcos
NPInd
Cayetano
NPInd
Robredo
LP
Honasan
UNA
Trillanes
NPInd
Alba
AK
Others Refused Don't know None
2016
SWS[31] Feb 5-7, 2016 1,200 ±3% 26 26 16 19 6 5 2
Standard[32] Jan 27-Feb 4, 2016 3,000 ±1.8% 31 25 15 20 5 4
Pulse Asia[33] Jan 24–28, 2016 1,200 ±3% 33 23 14 18 5 4 0.3 1 2
SWS[34] Jan 8–10, 2016 1,800 ±2% 28 25 14 17 8 3 1 2.3 2
RMN[35] Jan 5-14, 2016 3,578 ±2.5% 32.14 21.60 17.36 14.06 6.32 6.01 2.52
2015
SWS[36] Dec 12–14, 2015 1,200 ±3% 30 19 17 14 8 5 0.8 0.64 1
Standard[37] Dec 4–12, 2015 1,800 ±2% 33 19 18 19 6 7 5
Pulse Asia[38] Dec 4–11, 2015 1,500 ±2.6% 29 23 18 11 9 4 0.3 0.34 0.1 1 1
MBCDZRH[39] Nov 27, 2015 7,436 ±1.14% 28.49 24.62 18.25 12.53 6.11 7.75 2.25
RMN[40] Oct 25-Nov 5, 2015 3,604 ±2.5% 38.10 18.70 11.90 13.65 5.94 5.38 6.33

Until candidacy filing ended on 16 October 2015

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size MoE Others Refused Don't know None
2015
Pulse Asia[41] Sep 8–15, 2015 2,400 ±2% 24 23 9 13 4 5 3 5 4
9.1%
B. Aquino III (LP): 6%
Pangilinan (LP): 2%
Henares (Ind): 0.1%
Others: 1%
3
SWS[42] Sep 2–5, 2015 1,200 ±3% 27 20 5 9 7 24 2 7 3 5 3 4 4
3.9%
Atienza (Buhay): 0.9%
Others/Refused/Don't know/None: 3%
Pulse Asia[43] Aug 27–Sep 3, 2015 1,200 ±3% 26 25 7 7 2
RMN[44] Aug 11–18, 2015 4,718 ±2.5% 36.01 21.36 11.82
SWS[58] Jun 5–8, 2015 1,200 ±3% 21 7 2 3 1 7 2 3 3 1.4 0.7 12 1 1.1
1.2%
Moreno (PMP): 0.7%
Pacquiao (UNA): 0.5%
22 8
Pulse Asia[45] May 30–Jun 5, 2015 1,200 ±3% 41 15 12 9 9 6 1 5 1 1 0.2 3
IBON[47][48] May 13–23, 2015 1,496 ±3% 15.9 2.5 6.8 1.9 5.1 7.8 13 60
Laylo [46] May 8–18, 2015 1,500 ±2.6% 23 16 11 11 5 7 7 5 6
SWS[59] Mar 20–23, 2015 1,200 ±3% 26 6 3 4 3 7 5 0.6 3 1.6 1.7 12 0.6 3 5 7
Pulse Asia[49] Mar 1–7, 2015 1,200 ±3% 29 16 13 11 11 3 4 2 0.4 6 1 0.2 1 2
2014
Pulse Asia[50] Nov 14–20, 2014 1,200 ±3% 33 20 13 8 6 5 3 1 8
1.3%
Gatchalian (NPC): 0.3%
Others: 1%
1 2
Pulse Asia[51] Sep 8–15, 2014 1,200 ±3% 31 19 9 6 5 5 3 3 6 7
Pulse Asia[52] Jun 24–Jul 6, 2014 1,200 ±3% 26 22 14 8 5 5 4 1 4 6 Others: 1% 1 1 1
Pulse Asia[53] Mar 19–26, 2014 1,200 ±3% 24 20 6 5 4 5 3 1 8 5 7
10.3%
K. Aquino (Ind): 5%
Bam Aquino (LP): 3%
JV Ejercito (UNA): 2%
Others: 0.3%
0.2 0.3

References

[edit]
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