2024 Elmwood—Transcona federal by-election
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Riding of Elmwood—Transcona | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 39.08% ( 8.73) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A by-election was held in the federal riding of Elmwood—Transcona in Manitoba, Canada, on September 16, 2024, following the resignation of incumbent New Democratic MP Daniel Blaikie.
The race was considered to be a battle between the Conservatives and the NDP, which has long held the constituency.[1][2]
The by-election was held on the same day as one in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun in Quebec.[3]
The election results marked the Liberal Party's worst election performance in Winnipeg, and is the first time in history that the Liberal Party received less than 5% of the vote in any Winnipeg riding.[4]
Background
[edit]The riding of Elmwood—Transcona was vacated on March 31, 2024, following the resignation of NDP MP Daniel Blaikie.[5]
Constituency
[edit]The constituency is a suburban[6] riding located in the north-eastern parts of the city of Winnipeg. It is considered a working class riding, and contains the areas of East Kildonan, Elmwood, Transcona and part of North Kildonan. There is a large presence of industry in the area.[7]
The riding is considered a stronghold for the New Democratic Party, who have won every election in the riding since its creation in 1988, except for in 2011.[6] Prior to 1988, the NDP held the riding's predecessor of Winnipeg—Birds Hill since its creation in 1979. Elmwood-Transcona is the only federal riding in Manitoba where the two competitive parties are the New Democrats and Conservatives.[8]
Candidates
[edit]On May 22, Leila Dance, the Executive Director of the Transcona Business Improvement Zone won the NDP nomination over Leilani Esteban, the Executive Director of the Chalmers Neighbourhood Renewal Corporation.[9][10]
On July 19, Conservative Party announced Colin Reynolds, a construction electrician as their candidate.[11][12] He has described himself as a proud union member.[13] Lawrence Toet, MP for Elmwood—Transcona, from 2011 to 2015 was considered a potential candidate for the Conservatives.[14]
On July 25, the Liberal Party nominated Ian MacIntyre, a retired teacher and union leader.[15]
Russ Wyatt, Winnipeg city councillor for Transcona, 2002 to 2018, and 2022 to present was pondering a run for either the NDP or the Conservatives. He said that he liked the NDP's domestic policies, but disliked their "woke nonsense," and he aligns with the Conservatives on international views and foreign policy.[16] Ultimately, he decided not to run.[17]
On July 2, the Green Party announced that Nic Geddert had won the nomination race to be their candidate.[18]
The People's Party originally chose Byron Gryba as their candidate.[19][20] However, the party later registered Sarah Couture as the candidate.[21]
On August 20, the Canadian Future Party announced Zbig Strycharz would be their candidate. He is one of the two first candidates to participate in any race under the CFP.[22]
Campaign
[edit]In May 2024, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh visited the riding.[23] In July 2024, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre visited the riding and held a rally.[24] In August 2024, People's Party Leader Maxime Bernier gathered with supporters in the riding.[25]
Advance voting was open from the 6th to the 9th of September and over 10,000 people cast a vote.[26]
Results
[edit]| Canadian federal by-election, September 16, 2024: Elmwood—Transcona Resignation of Daniel Blaikie | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | ||||
| New Democratic | Leila Dance | 13,606 | 48.14 | -1.55 | ||||
| Conservative | Colin Reynolds | 12,448 | 44.05 | +15.92 | ||||
| Liberal | Ian MacIntyre | 1,360 | 4.81 | -9.93 | ||||
| Green | Nicolas Geddert | 366 | 1.30 | -0.32 | ||||
| People's | Sarah Couture | 349 | 1.23 | -4.59 | ||||
| Canadian Future | Zbig Strycharz | 132 | 0.47 | — | ||||
| Total valid votes | 28,261 | |||||||
| Total rejected ballots | ||||||||
| Turnout | 28,261 | 39.08 | -20.55 | |||||
| Eligible voters | 72,325 | |||||||
| New Democratic hold | Swing | -8.73 | ||||||
2021 results
[edit]| 2021 Canadian federal election: Elmwood—Transcona | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures | |||
| New Democratic | Daniel Blaikie | 20,791 | 49.69 | +4.07 | $63,992.50 | |||
| Conservative | Rejeanne Caron | 11,768 | 28.13 | -9.32 | $53,284.18 | |||
| Liberal | Sara Mirwaldt | 6,169 | 14.74 | +2.42 | $10,073.29 | |||
| People's | Jamie Cumming | 2,435 | 5.82 | +4.64 | $276.86 | |||
| Green | Devlin Hinchey | 676 | 1.62 | -1.80 | $0.00 | |||
| Total valid votes/expense limit | 41,839 | 99.26 | – | $106,782.98 | ||||
| Total rejected ballots | 314 | 0.74 | +0.03 | |||||
| Turnout | 42,153 | 59.62 | -2.72 | |||||
| Eligible voters | 70,701 | |||||||
| New Democratic hold | Swing | +6.69 | ||||||
| Source: Elections Canada[27] | ||||||||
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Conservatives look to steal NDP heavy Elmwood-Transcona riding". Winnipeg. September 10, 2021. Retrieved August 14, 2024.
- ^ "Winnipeg byelection a 'toss-up' between NDP, Conservatives, poli sci prof says - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Retrieved September 11, 2024.
- ^ "Trudeau déclenche deux élections partielles, dont une dans LaSalle—Émard—Verdun". La Presse (in Canadian French). July 28, 2024. Retrieved August 3, 2024.
- ^ "Some numbers on just how badly the Liberals did in Monday's byelections". National Post.
- ^ "NDP MP Daniel Blaikie resigning House seat to work with Manitoba premier". CTV News. February 28, 2024. Retrieved February 28, 2024.
- ^ a b "More baleful byelections are brewing for the Trudeau Liberals after the fall of St. Paul's". National Post. June 27, 2024.
- ^ "Election 2021 Riding Profile: Elmwood-Transcona". Winnipeg. August 27, 2021. Retrieved August 14, 2024.
- ^ Kives, Bartley (August 24, 2024). "Legends of the fall byelection in Elmwood-Transcona - Drilling down into a myth, a theory and a generalization about Winnipeg's easternmost federal riding". CBC News.
- ^ Rollason, Kevin (May 22, 2024). "Transcona BIZ boss to run for NDP in byelection". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved May 22, 2024.
- ^ Sanders, Carol (May 4, 2024). "NDP premiers share political war stories". Winnipeg Free Press. FP Canadian Newspapers Limited Partnership. Retrieved May 5, 2024.
- ^ https://x.com/CPC_HQ/status/1814308165099384944
- ^ McKendrick, Devon (July 19, 2024). "Federal Conservatives name candidate for Elmwood-Transcona". CTV News Winnipeg. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
- ^ Froese, Ian (July 19, 2024). "Conservatives pick union member to go after blue-collar voters in upcoming Elmwood-Transcona byelection". CBC News.
- ^ Klein, Kevin (March 24, 2024). "Elmwood-Transcona byelection - A test of Conservative momentum". Winnipeg Sun. Postmedia Network. Retrieved April 27, 2024.
- ^ "Former teacher, union leader to run for Liberal Party of Canada in upcoming Elmwood-Transcona byelection". CBC. July 25, 2024. Retrieved July 31, 2024.
- ^ Piché, Gabrielle (April 6, 2024). "Wyatt pondering federal bid to replace Blaikie". Winnipeg Free Press. FP Canadian Newspapers Limited Partnership. Retrieved April 27, 2024.
- ^ Wyatt, Russ (April 15, 2024). "However, with many suggesting I stay on as city councillor, I want to honour that request". Facebook. Retrieved April 27, 2024.
- ^ "Nic Geddert to Run in Elmwood-Transcona". Green Party of Canada. July 2, 2024. Retrieved July 2, 2024.
- ^ "Byron Gryba". People's Party of Canada. Retrieved August 8, 2024.
- ^ Daigneault, Taylor (August 14, 2024). "Meet the Elmwood-Transcona candidates". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved August 20, 2024.
- ^ "Sarah Couture". People's Party of Canada. Retrieved August 20, 2024.
- ^ Kives, Bartley (August 20, 2024). "New federal centrist party has Zbig news for Elmwood-Transcona byelection". CBC News. Archived from the original on August 25, 2024. Retrieved August 25, 2024.
- ^ Posted, Malak Abas (May 25, 2024). "Singh's visit boosts Dance's chances in Elmwood-Transcona". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved August 14, 2024.
- ^ Axelrod, Gavin (July 29, 2024). "Poilievre, federal Conservatives rally support from voters ahead of Elmwood-Transcona byelection". CBC News. Retrieved September 17, 2024.
- ^ "PPC Leader Maxime Bernier visits Winnipeg, promotes candidate in Elmwood-Transcona byelection". CBC News. August 25, 2024. Retrieved September 17, 2024.
- ^ Fortner, Cole (September 10, 2024). "Over 10,000 vote in Elmwood-Transcona byelection advanced polls". CityNews Winnipeg. Retrieved September 11, 2024.
- ^ "Elmwood—Transcona forty-fourth general election 2021 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada. Retrieved August 24, 2024.