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Post-election pendulum for the 1996 Australian federal election

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The Mackerras pendulum as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or instant-runoff voting.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.[1]

Government seats (94)[2]
Marginal
Northern Territory NT Nick Dondas CLP 0.37
Paterson NSW Bob Baldwin LIB 0.43
Canning WA Ricky Johnston LIB 0.69
Lilley Qld Elizabeth Grace LIB 0.73
Bendigo Vic Bruce Reid LIB 0.88
Bowman Qld Andrea West LIB 0.89
Makin SA Trish Draper LIB 1.08
La Trobe Vic Bob Charles LIB 1.37
Griffith Qld Graeme McDougall LIB 1.47
Lindsay NSW Jackie Kelly LIB 1.58
Kingston SA Susan Jeanes LIB 2.01
McMillan Vic Russell Broadbent LIB 2.07
McEwen Vic Fran Bailey LIB 2.18
Cowan WA Richard Evans LIB 2.39
Lowe NSW Paul Zammit LIB 2.47
Deakin Vic Phil Barresi LIB 2.48
Chisholm Vic Michael Wooldridge LIB 2.59
Dickson Qld Tony Smith LIB 3.17
Dunkley Vic Bruce Billson LIB 3.36
Adelaide SA Trish Worth LIB 3.52
Robertson NSW Jim Lloyd LIB 3.56
Capricornia Qld Paul Marek NAT 3.62
Ballarat Vic Michael Ronaldson LIB 3.67
Murray Vic Sharman Stone LIB 3.70 v NAT
Swan WA Kim Wilkie LIB 3.71
Parramatta NSW Ross Cameron LIB 3.87
Leichhardt Qld Warren Entsch LIB 4.18
Page NSW Ian Causley NAT 4.31
Bass Tas Warwick Smith LIB 4.57
Eden-Monaro NSW Gary Nairn LIB 4.76
Hughes NSW Danna Vale LIB 4.89
Moreton Qld Gary Hardgrave LIB 5.09
Stirling WA Eoin Cameron LIB 5.17
Aston Vic Peter Nugent LIB 5.59
Braddon Tas Chris Miles LIB 5.70
Fairly safe
Gilmore NSW Joanna Gash LIB 6.24
Macquarie NSW Kerry Bartlett LIB 6.36
Parkes NSW Michael Cobb NAT 6.50
Herbert Qld Peter Lindsay LIB 6.59
Casey Vic Bob Halverson LIB 6.65
Richmond NSW Larry Anthony NAT 6.75
Corangamite Vic Stewart McArthur LIB 7.69
Petrie Qld Teresa Gambaro LIB 7.70
Wentworth NSW Andrew Thomson LIB 7.83
Hindmarsh SA Chris Gallus LIB 8.06
Grey SA Barry Wakelin LIB 8.54
Forde Qld Kay Elson LIB 9.70
Dawson Qld De-Anne Kelly NAT 9.92
Sturt SA Christopher Pyne LIB 9.99
Safe
Flinders Vic Peter Reith LIB 10.07
Bennelong NSW John Howard LIB 10.13
Hinkler Qld Paul Neville NAT 10.36
Macarthur NSW John Fahey LIB 10.69
Higgins Vic Peter Costello LIB 10.73
Goldstein Vic David Kemp LIB 10.94
Menzies Vic Kevin Andrews LIB 10.99
Cowper NSW Garry Nehl NAT 11.56
Longman Qld Mal Brough LIB 11.59
Boothby SA Andrew Southcott LIB 11.60
Hume NSW Alby Schultz LIB 11.77
Tangney WA Daryl Williams LIB 12.13
Pearce WA Judi Moylan LIB 12.18
Cook NSW Stephen Mutch LIB 12.28
Wannon Vic David Hawker LIB 12.31
Forrest WA Geoff Prosser LIB 13.64
Kooyong Vic Petro Georgiou LIB 13.81
Kennedy Qld Bob Katter NAT 14.49
Mayo SA Alexander Downer LIB 15.16
Warringah NSW Tony Abbott LIB 15.32
Lyne NSW Mark Vaile NAT 15.44
North Sydney NSW Joe Hockey LIB 15.56
Mackellar NSW Bronwyn Bishop LIB 16.53
Ryan Qld John Moore LIB 16.87
McPherson Qld John Bradford LIB 17.00
Indi Vic Lou Lieberman LIB 17.79
Fadden Qld David Jull LIB 17.84
Fairfax Qld Alex Somlyay LIB 18.09
Berowra NSW Philip Ruddock LIB 18.40
Gwydir NSW John Anderson NAT 18.51
Wide Bay Qld Warren Truss NAT 18.53
Gippsland Vic Peter McGauran NAT 18.64
New England NSW Ian Sinclair NAT 19.18
Wakefield SA Neil Andrew LIB 19.96
Very safe
Moncrieff Qld Kathy Sullivan LIB 20.25
Fisher Qld Peter Slipper LIB 20.34
Barker SA Ian McLachlan LIB 20.89
Riverina NSW Noel Hicks NAT 21.01
Farrer NSW Tim Fischer NAT 21.23
Groom Qld Bill Taylor LIB 21.28
Mallee Vic John Forrest NAT 23.50
Mitchell NSW Alan Cadman LIB 24.32
Maranoa Qld Bruce Scott NAT 25.73
Bradfield NSW Brendan Nelson LIB 25.77
O'Connor WA Wilson Tuckey LIB 25.93
Opposition seats (49)[2]
Marginal
Dobell NSW Michael Lee ALP 0.08
Brand WA Kim Beazley ALP 0.23
Brisbane Qld Arch Bevis ALP 0.36
Bruce Vic Alan Griffin ALP 0.76
Lyons Tas Dick Adams ALP 1.31
Rankin Qld Craig Emerson ALP 1.35
Bank NSW Daryl Melham ALP 1.41
Namadgi ACT Annette Ellis ALP 1.51
Isaacs Vic Greg Wilton ALP 1.56
Jagajaga Vic Jenny Macklin ALP 2.71
Greenway NSW Frank Mossfield ALP 3.39
Fremantle WA Carmen Lawrence ALP 4.25
Barton NSW Robert McClelland ALP 4.34
Franklin Tas Harry Quick ALP 4.68
Wills Vic Kelvin Thomson ALP 5.77 v IND
Fairly safe
Melbourne Ports Vic Clyde Holding ALP 6.05
Werriwa NSW Mark Latham ALP 6.21
Perth WA Stephen Smith ALP 6.46
Corio Vic Gavan O'Connor ALP 6.80
Hunter NSW Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 6.97
Chisholm Vic Neil O'Keefe ALP 7.03
Port Adelaide SA Rod Sawford ALP 7.05
Fraser ACT John Langmore ALP 7.32
Canberra ACT Bob McMullan ALP 7.52
Shortland NSW Peter Morris ALP 8.15
Charlton NSW Kelly Hoare ALP 9.32
Bonython SA Bob Brown ALP 9.32
Safe
Kingsford Smith NSW Laurie Brereton ALP 10.15
Hotham Vic Simon Crean ALP 10.56
Newcastle NSW Allan Morris ALP 11.19
Reid NSW Laurie Ferguson ALP 11.38
Watson NSW Leo McLeay ALP 11.68
Denison Tas Duncan Kerr ALP 11.79
Holt Vic Gareth Evans ALP 12.81
Cunningham NSW Stephen Martin ALP 12.91
Blaxland NSW Paul Keating ALP 12.98
Sydney NSW Peter Baldwin ALP 13.80
Prospect NSW Janice Crosio ALP 13.91
Chifley NSW Roger Price ALP 14.54
Grayndler NSW Anthony Albanese ALP 16.38
Calwell Vic Andrew Theophanous ALP 17.19
Fowler NSW Ted Grace ALP 18.27
Lalor Vic Julia Gillard ALP 18.51
Maribyrnong Vic Bob Sercombe ALP 18.85
Throsby NSW Colin Hollis ALP 19.62
Very safe
Melbourne Vic Lindsay Tanner ALP 20.21
Scullin Vic Harry Jenkins ALP 20.74
Gellibrand Vic Ralph Willis ALP 21.23
Batman Vic Martin Ferguson ALP 21.31
Crossbench seats (5)
Oxley Qld Pauline Hanson IND[a] 4.66 v ALP
Curtin WA Allan Rocher IND 7.28 v LIB
Calare NSW Peter Andren IND 13.32 v NAT
Kalgoorlie WA Graeme Campbell IND 10.35 v ALP
Moore WA Paul Filing IND 15.48 v ALP
  1. ^ Pauline Hanson had been disendorsed as the Liberal candidate and ran as an independent, but she remained a Liberal on the ballot paper

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Sakkal, Paul; Rooney, Kieran (14 November 2023). "Veteran Liberal Party MP Russell Broadbent quits party, moves to crossbench". The Sydney Morning Herald.
  2. ^ a b Newman, G; Kopras, A (4 November 1996). "Federal Elections 1996" (PDF). Background Paper 6 1996-97. Parliamentary Research Service. ISSN 1037-2938. Retrieved 2024-01-09.