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Talk:2024 Atlantic hurricane season

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Colorado State University seasonal discussion

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Hello,

Editors of this article, particularly the Seasonal forecasts section, may be interested in knowing that on September 3, the Colorado State University (CSU) published this document explaining the state of atmospheric conditions in the North Atlantic Ocean and how those conditions are (negatively) affecting the season's activity.

I am aware that many years ago (i.e. before 2009), CSU would issue updated monthly seasonal forecasts around this time of the year. However, this is the first time I have ever recalled the university issuing a statement like this, especially several weeks after their August forecast.

Given that CSU and multiple other organizations have issued forecasts calling for an extremely active season, I suspect (but have no sources to confirm) this document is a reflection of some concerns that their forecasts were too aggressive.

Based on this information, I support editing the Seasonal forecasts section to include some mention of CSU's latest statement. However, is there a consensus to do so by members of WP:WPTC and elsewhere in the Wikipedia community? Any input would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you,

AndrewPeterT (talk) (contribs) 19:07, 4 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I just glossed over the opening pages, so Im not sure if I sound redundant. However, I have been reading about an "Atlantic La Nina". It is probably noteworthy to mention too. ✶Quxyz✶ 19:38, 4 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]
Its not worth mentioning it in the seasonal forecasts section as it isn't a seasonal forecast, however, it would be good to work bits of it into the Seasonal Summary section.Jason Rees (talk) 20:24, 4 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]
@Drdpw, Can we display the comment now or are we waiting for Francine? ✶Quxyz✶ 01:01, 9 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Francine draft

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A draft on Francine has been started here. ✶Quxyz✶ 00:13, 10 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Forecast Ranges

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The forecast shows ranges for some of the forecasts but not others. The CSU paper shows a 68% confidence interval for named storms of 19-27. The paper points out that the distribution may not be symmetric, but it is. Thus it is a reasonable guess that the 95% range is 15-31 and the 99% range is 11-35. The forecast table should present the range and an associated probability for the range of each forecast. Preferably the same probability would be used for all forecasts. Similarly the historical range should include the range stated at the same probability as the forecast. JAQUINO (talk) 13:37, 17 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I think it is fine as is. I am decently sure that we use the numbers that they most openly use, like the ones on their first page. ✶Quxyz✶ 17:26, 18 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Hurricane prediction as of September 2024

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As October quickly approaches, models are currently showing that the tropical Atlantic will likely experience lower than average hurricane activity for the 2024 hurricane season due to dry air from the Saharan Dust and abnormally high wind shear. Williamwang363 (talk) 16:38, 18 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

We cannot publish Original Research and this is not a place to discuss the season in general. ✶Quxyz✶ 17:25, 18 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]
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