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Audits and studies of improper noncitizen voter voting

[edit]
State/Study Status Partisan audit 'Possible noncitizens' Year(s) studied Noncitizens on voter rolls ...who voted Prosecuted (convicted) Registered voters Votes cast % on rolls % voted %

prosecuted

Ref
KS Law blocked by suit in 2018 Y 2015-2018 3 (3) 1,800,000 0.00017 [1]
FL Y 180,000 2014 85 1 14,000,000 .0006 0.000007 [2][3]
NC N 2016 41* 19 (16) w/ 3 dismissed 4,800,000 .0009 0.0004 [4][5]
NC 2017 0 4,800,000 0 [6]
NC 2018 1 4,800,000 0.00002 [6]
NC 2020 1 4,800,000 0.00002 [6]
NC 2021 1 4,800,000 0.00002 [6]
NC 2022 0 4,800,000 0 [6]
Brennan

Center

N 2016 30 23,500,000 0.0001 [4][7]
TX Blocked by lawsuit Y 98,000 (lawsuit stopped it) 2019 0 0 0 [8][9][10][11]
GA Lawsuit unsuccessful Y 1,634 1997-2022 0 0 0 8,000,000 0 [4][5]
OH Y 597 2024 8,000,000 [11]
TN Blocked by lawsuit, using DMV data as old as 2019[12] Y 14,375 (lawsuit stopped it) July 2024 [13]
AL 2 lawsuits pending, 700 already provided proof[12] Y 3,251 Aug 2024 3,000,000 [14][11][15]
VA Y 6,303 Aug 2024 [16]
TX Some citizens found[17] Y 6,500 Aug 2024 1930* (?) [18][17]
OR Glitch fixed N 1200 9
AZ (Richman) Lawsuit in appeal Y 1,934 (DMV) Oct 2023 [19][20][21]

*all legal residents, some had been in the country for 50 years and one thought they were a citizen because they married a citizen.

Before the 2014 midterm elections in Florida, then-governor Rick Scott announced a purge of 180,000 suspected foreign nationals from voter rolls, though only 85 names were removed and only one person was prosecuted.[3][2]

In 2019, Texas rescinded its effort to remove almost 100,000 voters after three months to settle a lawsuit after many were discovered to be naturalized citizens.[10]

In July 2024, Tennessee backed down after mailing a letter asking for proof of citizenship to 14,375 voters. Nearly 3200 voters had proved their citizenship in the month before the state rescinded its initiative amid a planned lawsuit by the ACLU.[13]

Of the 6500 'potential noncitizens' identified by Texas in 2024 who were on the voter rolls, the vast majority had no voting history.[18]

Voter roll maintenance efforts

[edit]
  • How many were stopped by lawsuits?
  • What percentage of citizens are removed vs. noncitizens?
    • For example, for databases that try and identify double voters remove 200-300 single voters for every double voter they catch

DMV data

[edit]

Ways that it is unreliable on its own

  • People forget to check a box saying they are a citizen or check the wrong box by accident[22]
  • People do not report their citizenship status to the DMV when they are naturalized until their next DMV appointment

Jury duty

[edit]

Issues with using as evidence of noncitizen voting

  • Outdated[23]
  • People check it by accident
  • People check it when citizens to try and get out of jury duty[22]
  • Examples
    • 2012 florida
      • Of 100 people excused for being noncitizens, 35 were confirmed to have documentary proof of citizenship (no follow-up on the others by NBC)[24]

North Carolina approach

[edit]

North Carolina has a nonpartisan board of electors that makes it one of the most reliable sources of noncitizen voting audits. Most audits are done by partisan (Republican) officials who tend to release large possible estimates that are often not updated to provide the actual numbers of noncitizens who voted.


North Carolina receives very few, if any, noncitizens on the voting rolls each year.[25]

Citizenship verification process in North Carolina as of 2017[26]

Applying finds to other contexts

[edit]
Using NC findings to estimate citizenship in cases where final noncitizen numbers are not publicly confirmed
DMV/ADOT SAVE Unconfirmed After excluding citizens deterred by documentation requirement
2023 AZ noncitizens registered 1,934 46 11-12 ?
GA 1997-2022 1,634 39 10 ?

Possible solutions

[edit]

Keep SAVE database updated

[edit]

The SAVE database is not updated in a timely manner when noncitizens become naturalized citizens. Improving the quality of the database would make identifying noncitizen voters much easier and make DPOC even more unnecessary while reducing administrative costs and time.

Documentary proof of Citizenship

[edit]
Lack of citizenship documentation by political party (2024)[27][28]

Many Americans (estimated at 9%) do not have easy or any access to proof of citizenship documents. Audits that require some citizens to provide this could result in citizens not voting. How many citizens during one of the audits above might drop out of the process or registering or confirming registration as a result of that requirement placed on them?

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Gajilan, Kyung Lah,A Chris (2018-11-01). "The war on voting rights: Will your ballot count? | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved 2024-09-29.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  2. ^ a b Evon, Dan (2018-11-16). "Were 53,000 Dead People Found on Florida's Voter Rolls?". Snopes. Archived from the original on September 25, 2024. Retrieved 2024-09-19. The initial list of 180,000 names was whittled to 2,625, according to the Florida Department of State. The state then checked a federal database and stated it found 207 noncitizens on the rolls (not necessarily voting but on the rolls). That list was sent to county election supervisors to check and it also turned out to contain errors. An Aug. 1, 2012, state elections document showed only 85 noncitizens were ultimately removed from the rolls out of a total of about 12 million voters at that time.
  3. ^ a b Beitsch, Rebecca; Bernal, Rafael (2024-05-12). "Speaker Johnson's 'intuition' on illegal voting clashes with data". The Hill. Retrieved 2024-09-19.
  4. ^ a b c Riccardi, Nicholas (2024-04-12). "Noncitizen voting isn't an issue in federal elections, regardless of conspiracy theories. Here's why". AP News. Retrieved 2024-09-27.
  5. ^ a b Schouten, Fredreka; Sneed, Tierney (2024-07-10). "Trump-aligned Republicans make noncitizen voting – already illegal in federal elections – a top 2024 target | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved 2024-09-27.
  6. ^ a b c d e Specht, Paul. "Are noncitizens straining North Carolina services? Here are the facts". @politifact. Retrieved 2024-09-27.
  7. ^ Keith, Douglas; Pérez, Myrna (May 5, 2017). "Noncitizen Voting: The Missing Millions | Brennan Center for Justice". www.brennancenter.org. Retrieved 2024-09-27.
  8. ^ Fessler, Pam (February 26, 2019). "Some Noncitizens Do Wind Up Registered To Vote, But Usually Not On Purpose". NPR.
  9. ^ Salinas II, Juan; Contreras, Natalia (2024-08-27). "Election experts cautious as Abbott touts voter roll purge". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved 2024-09-27.
  10. ^ a b Ura, Alexa (2019-04-26). "Texas will end its botched voter citizenship review and rescind its list of flagged voters". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved 2024-09-27.
  11. ^ a b c "Noncitizen voting is extremely rare, yet Republicans are making it a major election concern". PBS News. 2024-09-02. Retrieved 2024-09-27.
  12. ^ a b Leingang, Rachel; Levine, Sam (2024-10-03). "Republicans' non-citizen voting myth sets stage to claim stolen election". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-10-04.
  13. ^ a b Mattise, Jonathan; Kruesi, Kimberlee (2024-07-17). "Tennessee won't purge voter rolls of people who disregard a letter asking them to prove citizenship". AP News. Retrieved 2024-09-25.
  14. ^ Riddle, Safiyah (2024-08-15). "Alabama election officials make voter registration inactive for thousands of potential noncitizens". AP News. Retrieved 2024-09-27.
  15. ^ Wang, Hansi Lo (September 27, 2024). "Justice Department sues Alabama, claiming it purged voters too close to the election". NPR.
  16. ^ Gamboa, Suzanne (2024-08-23). "A Virginia voter roll purge sparks renewed rhetoric over 'non-citizens' casting ballots". NBC News. Retrieved 2024-09-27.
  17. ^ a b Davila, Vianna; Churchill, Lexi; Barragán, James; Contreras, Natalia (2024-10-15). "Greg Abbott Boasted That Texas Removed 6,500 Noncitizens From Its Voter Rolls. That Number Was Likely Inflated". ProPublica. Retrieved 2024-10-15.
  18. ^ a b Acevedo, Nicole (2024-08-29). "Texas voter purge may be sending a chilling message, lawmakers and advocates warn". NBC News. Retrieved 2024-09-27.
  19. ^ Kessler, Glenn (2024-03-06). "Opinion: The truth about noncitizen voting in federal elections". Washington Post. Archived from the original on 2024-04-13. Retrieved 2024-04-21. There is scattered evidence of noncitizens voting in federal elections — sometime by mistake (such as erroneously thinking they were eligible while getting a driver's license) but also with nefarious intent ... Given the paucity of evidence of noncitizen voting, many election researchers have long said that there was little to support the idea that noncitizen voting had ever affected the outcome of a major election. But that does not necessarily prove that the phenomenon does not happen.
  20. ^ Richman, Jesse (October 13, 2023). "EXPERT REPORT OF JESSE T. RICHMAN". www.documentcloud.org. Retrieved 2024-09-29.
  21. ^ Richman, Jesse (October 28, 2023). "Supplemental to EXPERT REPORT OF JESSE T. RICHMAN". www.documentcloud.org. Retrieved 2024-09-29. The presence of nearly 1,800 individuals who are on the active voter roll but appear to have indicated to ADOT (at the time that they registered to vote or after) that they were not a citizen speaks to the potential merits of legislation aimed at evaluating whether these individuals are currently non-citizens. It speaks to the potential merits of engaging in further database matching (e.g. examination of the SAVE database) in order to clarify further the citizenship status of these individuals as contemplated in the legislation being litigated in this case. This also speaks to the potential merits of requesting that these individuals provide additional information to clarify their current citizenship status, as might occur under the legislation being litigated in this case if additional database matching proved unable to resolve the question of their citizenship status. As I noted in my previous report, further investigation could help to reduce the number of non-citizens registered to vote in Arizona or increase public confidence in Arizona elections, or both.
  22. ^ a b Olson, Walter (April 11, 2024). "Commentary: The Right's Bogus Claims about Noncitizen Voting Fraud". Cato Institute. Retrieved 2024-10-04. Aside from larger databases, administrators may (for example) obtain from court authorities a list of persons who ask to be excused from jury duty on the grounds that they are not citizens. Not infrequently these people turn out to have been fibbing to the court clerk to get out of jury service and are in fact native-born citizens—thus generating a false positive. Other false positive matches can arise because someone omits to check the 'citizen' box on a driver's license application even though they are in fact a citizen, or because databases take a while to catch up after someone becomes a U.S. citizen through naturalization.
    The more people believe elections are rigged, the more they are likely to turn their discontents in a direction other than electoral politics. Some will go the passive route of resignation, withdrawing from civic involvements, making themselves the perfect subjects for strongman rule. Others will turn to militia activity or outright violence.
  23. ^ Schouten, Fredreka (2024-03-29). "In quest to change voting rules, Republicans push ballot measures in key battleground states | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved 2024-09-24.
  24. ^ Hasen, Richard L. (2020). Election meltdown: dirty tricks, distrust, and the threat to American democracy. Yale University Press. New Haven and London: Yale University Press, [2020]. p. 22. ISBN 978-0-300-24819-7. 100 people were excused from jury duty because they were not citizens, but yet who were on the voting rolls. But he admitted on cross-examination that he had not told the court about a follow-up investigation, which showed that at least 35 people on NBC's list in fact had documentary proof of citizenship. (While it does not appear that NBC followed-up with the others, in 2012, the Florida secretary of state released a list of 180,000 potential noncitizens to be considered for purging. After investigation, just 85 noncitizens were removed from voting rolls as noncitizens.
  25. ^ "How does North Carolina ensure that only U.S. citizens vote?". FAQ: Voter Registration | NCSBE. Retrieved 2024-09-29.
  26. ^ "Post-Election Audit Report: General Election 2016" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections. April 21, 2017. p. Appendix Pages 1-2. Also, due to timing issues and the fact that DMV data is generally updated only when licenses are issued, DMV data alone is not reliable for this purpose either...
    If SAVE indicates a voter is a non-citizen, NCSBE opens a case file and attempts to contact the voter to determine citizenship status through mailings and interviews. Because of the unreliability of citizenship data, voters who appear to be non-citizens — where both data sources indicate non-citizenship status — are not removed from the rolls, absent independent confirmation that they are not citizens. In fact, approximately three-quarters of those who subsequently provide proof of U.S. citizenship continued to appear as non-citizens in the SAVE database.
  27. ^ Levine, Sam (2024-06-12). "Millions of US voters lack access to documents to prove citizenship". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-09-10.
  28. ^ Who Lacks ID in America Today? An Exploration of Voter ID Access, Barriers, and Knowledge (June 2024)
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